Lentil prices in Canada will not fall as sharply as expected this season, the Canadian government said, as it boosted its forecast for domestic consumption, and warned on quality concerns.
And prices for dry beans will rise even faster than thought, helped by extremely tight stocks.
Price prospects for chickpeas and dry peas were left unchanged.
‘Concerns over crop quality’
The Canadian agricultural ministry, AAFC, revised forecasts for lentils prices to $585-$615 per tonne, after last month’s $530-$560 per tonne estimates.
But this is still sharply down from $965 a tonne last year.
Although production is seen up by some 28% this season, at 3.26m tonnes, the drawdown in stocks last year will limit the overall increase in supply.
And quality concerns are lifting prices for high-grade lentils, as a decreased supply of No.1 or No.2 grade Canadian lentils is expected next year.
“During the month of October, the on-farm Saskatchewan large green and red lentil prices rose $105 per tonne and $470 per tonne respectively,” AAFC said.
“This was largely due to concerns over crop quality.”
‘Lower crop quality’
And with an upward revision to domestic lentil consumption, AAFC tightened its supply and demand balance for 2016-17.
Exports are expected to rise to a record 2.2 tonnes, and the AAFC revised upward its expectations of domestic consumption to 786,000 tonnes.
“Domestic use is expected to increase and remain above historical levels due to the lower crop quality,” said AAFC.
‘Small North American supply’
The AAFC raised forecasts for dry beans prices even further to $920-$950 per tonne after raising them to $880-$910 per tonne a month earlier.
Tighter supplies, and falling inventories, are seen leaving stocks at just 5,000 tonnes by the end of 2016-17, 1% of total consumption and export demand.
“The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise due to the small North American supply,” the AAFC said.
In the US, the area planted to dry beans for the crop just finished was seen down 14% by the USDA, at 1.3m acres, mostly due to lower area seeded in Michigan.
“US total dry bean production, excluding chickpeas, is forecast by the USDA to decrease to below 1.1 tonne, down 16% from 2015-16,” the AAFC said.
(Source – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/canada-raises-price-forecasts-of-lentils-dry-beans–10180.html)