Prices across the grains complex moved upwards at the start of the week, corn dragged along in the wake of a weaker US dollar and resurgent soybean prices, which at one point had gained 10 cents on overnight levels.
While the rally ran out of steam by the 18:30 London time assessment point, wheat and soybeans were both up by around 5 cents, with corn trailing in around 2 cents higher along much of the 2018 curve.
The front month CBOT March futures contract reached $3.5875/bu at time of assessment, up 2.25 cents/bu, with the May and July contracts up 1.75 cents/bu at $3.6675/bu and $3.75/bu.
Weather was the key driver again, with rainfall in Argentina and southern Brazil disappointing again and mounting fears over the impact that it may have on corn and soybean crops.
Nonetheless, there remains enough corn in the world, and that capped the upward momentum despite relatively positive export sales inspections data, which saw inspections rise versus the previous week to 993,506 mt, although they continue to lag on last year’s data.
Brazil’s Mato Grosso state posted record corn exports in 2017, according to the farm economics institute Imea, accounting for 62.5% of the country’s exports last year.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s corn crop – which like Brazil shares a second crop harvest in some regions – has seen some farmers switching to cotton to take advantage of surging prices, the USDA said in a grain and feed update.
If that is repeated in the coming weeks, as Brazil’s farmers start to plant their safrinha crop, Brazil’s corn crop may well be revised downwards in light of weather and more tempting options.
Elsewhere, Russia’s export data showed the impact that encroaching cold weather is having on logistics, and contributing to a quieter physical market, according to market sources.
The FOB Ukraine corn assessment moved up marginally by 25 cents, to $173.50/mt, while the CIF Korea corn assessment was unchanged at $195.50/mt.
For the Americas assessments, all outright prices rose with the underlying CBOT strength, but differentials were broadly unchanged.
Indications for FOB Up River corn loading in February were heard offered at 69 cents over, seeing the differential nudge down by a cent to 68 cents over the March contract, while differentials for March loading yellow corn in the US Gulf moved up a cent to 55 over March on the back of higher physical indications.
(Source – https://www.agricensus.com/Article/Corn-commentary-Corn-dragged-higher-as-grains-complex-jumps-708.html)