Dry weather in the state of Bahia hit the tail end of the Brazilian coffee harvest, officials there said.
IBGE, the Brazilian national statistics institute cut its forecast for the country’s coffee crop just finished, to 47.8m bags, down 2.7% from a month earlier.
The institute said the fall in prices was “mainly due to a reduction in the average yield,” which was down 2.4% due to drier weather.
The number is below estimates by Conab, the Brazilian crop supply agency, which has the harvest at 49.7m bags, and well behind US government estimates for a 56.0m crop.
Dry weather in Bahia
The Brazilian arabica crop was seen at 39.8m bags, down 1.5% from last month’s estimate.
“In the final stage of harvesting the crops of Bahia producers faced with product of a smaller size and weight,” IBGE said, reporting arabica yields there down by 28.2% from last month.
This fall in yields was the result of an “excessively dry climate,” which caused water stress, slowing the filling of the cherries.
Next crop under pressure
And there are concerns about next season’s arabica crop as well, which will be exacerbated because the crop is due for a seasonal off-year.
“A state authority yesterday reported increased fungal attack in Minas Gerais, by far the most important arabica growing state in Brazil,” Commerzbank said. “This threatens to reduce next season’s production potential.”
The forecast of robusta coffee production was cut to 8.3%, once again reflecting dry weather in Bahia, where production was seen down 48.6% this month.
Tighter supplies from Brazil follow disappointing production numbers in Colombia.
On Monday the Coffee Federation in Colombia reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of August was 1.189m bags, down 5.9%, or 75,000 bags, year on year.
“This performance does however follow many months of improved production,” noted I & M Smith.
Colombian production since the start of the season last October is up 5.7%, at a total of 12,975,000 bags.
“These figures with Colombian coffee production tailing off over the past couple of months, does confirm the expectations that the overly dry conditions that came with the El Nino phenomenon within the Pacific Ocean…, has impacted negatively within many coffee districts in Colombia,” I&M Smith said.
Colombian exports are booming, up 14.5% year on year, following the end of a trucker strikes.
(Source – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/dryness-hits-the-end-of-the-bahia-coffee-harvest–9909.html)