Hopes are growing for wheat crops in the EU, the world’s largest wheat exporter, as fears of heat damage recede.
Consensus is growing around a record wheat harvest for France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, while expectations are also growing for yields in Germany and the UK, the EU’s second and third largest growers respectively.
On Thursday analysts Strategie Grains raised their forecast for French soft wheat production by almost 1m tonnes to a record 38.7m tonnes.
French wheat survives heat
Strategie Grains is the latest group to revise hopes for French wheat production, as evidence grows that the crop, which has now been almost completely harvested, escaped damage from the hot dry weather seen earlier in the summer.
“The excellent yield potential of the soft wheat, and the fact that an advanced physiological maturity had already been reached when temperatures peaked meant that yield potentials were preserved despite the very dry weather at the end of the growth cycle,” said Strategie Grains.
Last week consultancies ODA and Agritel also pegged hopes for French wheat production at record levels, at 39.4m tonnes and 38.9m tonnes respectively.
Meanwhile Germany’s association of farm cooperative revised its forecast for German wheat production up by 0.27m tonnes to 25.70m, compared to 25.43m tonnes forecast in July.
The association’s forecast for German rapeseed production was revised up by 0.1m tonnes since last month, to 4.91m tonnes.
But the forecast for corn production was slashed to 3.91m tonnes from 4.64m tonnes forecast in July.
The UK is also seeing a strong outlook for wheat production.
As Agrimoney.com reported this week, concerns are growing on the effect that bumper prices, in combination with a large over hang from last year, could have on UK wheat prices.
On Thursday consultants AHDB estimated that that that 10% of the UK winter wheat harvest was complete as of August 11.
“Early indications are that yields are good,” said ADAS, pinning preliminary hopes at 7.9- 8.1 tonnes to hectare.
This is short of last year’s record yields of 8.6 tonnes per hectare, but yields at the upper end of this range would still be the fourth largest on record, and well above the ten-year average of
However, on Wednesday the US Department of Agriculture edged its forecast for 2015-16 EU wheat production down to 147.82m tonnes from 147.88 forecast in July, while on July 30 the IGC revised its forecast for EU wheat production down to 148.5m tonnes, from 148.8m tonnes.
(Source – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/heat-damage-fears-for-european-wheat-recede–8687.html)